With its stock surging, Century Aluminum is capitalizing on a powerful shift in U.S. industrial policy, restarting domestic production and solidifying its position as a key player in America’s manufacturing resurgence.
CHICAGO – A decisive shift in U.S. trade policy is creating a uniquely profitable environment for domestic manufacturers, and Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) has emerged as a primary beneficiary. The company’s stock has skyrocketed over 60% in the last year as investors recognize its strategic advantages in an increasingly protectionist market.
For those looking to invest in the American onshoring trend, Century Aluminum presents a clear and compelling story of how policy is translating directly into profitability and growth.
A ‘One-Two Punch’ of Tariffs and Premiums
The core catalyst behind Century’s recent success is a fundamental change in its pricing power, driven by U.S. trade policy. In June 2025, Section 232 tariffs on aluminum imports were increased to 50%, making foreign metal significantly more expensive for American buyers.
This has had a direct and powerful effect on the U.S. Midwest premium, a regional surcharge added to the global aluminum price. With foreign supply now pricier, this premium has surged, delivering a major boost to Century’s revenue. The impact is undeniable, with the company issuing an optimistic third-quarter forecast for Adjusted EBITDA of $115 million to $125 million, which management explicitly linked to the higher domestic premiums.
Restarting American Production
Century is wasting no time converting this favorable market into tangible growth. In August, the company announced a $50 million investment to restart the remaining idled capacity at its Mt. Holly, South Carolina, smelter. The project will:
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Bring the plant to full production by mid-2026 for the first time since 2015.
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Create over 100 new high-wage manufacturing jobs.
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Increase total U.S. primary aluminum production by nearly 10%.
This move is not just a business decision; it addresses national security needs, as high-purity primary aluminum is an essential component for military aircraft and advanced defense systems.
Strengthening the Foundation for Growth
To support its ambitious plans, Century’s management has taken decisive steps to de-risk its financial future. In July, the company successfully refinanced $400 million of its senior notes, a move that lowers annual interest payments and extends its debt maturity to 2032. This provides significant financial flexibility and reduces near-term risk for investors.
This financial stability underpins a bold long-term vision: a plan to build the first new U.S. smelter in nearly 50 years. The project, selected for up to $500 million in potential funding from the Department of Energy, would position Century as a leader in producing low-carbon “green aluminum,” a premium product in high demand from the automotive and renewable energy sectors.
Wall Street’s Bullish Outlook
Financial analysts share the positive sentiment. The analyst community holds a consensus “Buy” rating on CENX stock, with B. Riley recently raising its price target to $25 and Wolfe Research maintaining an “Outperform” rating with a $27 target.
With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 8.14, the stock appears attractively valued relative to its strong earnings growth projections. In a market where competitors have been slower to restart domestic capacity, Century Aluminum has firmly established itself as the preferred vehicle for investing in the revitalization of American industry.
